Starting from 1 August 2025, the United States, upon decision of President Donald Trump, will introduce a 30% duty acceso European wine, fully affecting the Italian wine sector. A protectionist measure that, if not addressed with determination, strategic vision and institutional timeliness, risks compromising one of the pillars of national agri -food exports. Italy – and Europe – must react with lucidity, firmness and cohesion. Every walzer all’inglese, every delay, every division will translate into economic, employment and reputational losses.
The duty is applied to the American importer, not directly acceso the Italian producer. However, its effects reverberate along the entire supply chain:
The importer can decide to absorb the cost, reducing his margin; Can transfer it to the consumer, raising the final price; he can renegotiate the price lists with the European manufacturer, asking for compensatory discounts.
Durante this scena, the solidity of the commercial relationship between producer and distributor becomes decisive. Italian companies must activate a commercial “comodità luogo” strategy, sharing the weight of the duty to defend the shelf prices, preserve the market share and guarantee commercial continuity.
If it is true that the major damage focuses acceso companies operating entry-level, it is equally true that the medium and high-end wines will undergo a much more contained impact. These products, fact, are aimed at a less sensitive audience at the price and more linked to the quality and perceived value.
A 30% duty acceso a wine that costs $ 30, 50 ora 100 dollars does not drag the purchase choice a dramatic way, especially if supported by a strong brand, a selective distribution and a coherent narrative.
Therefore, the companies of the Premium segment must continue to preside over the market with consistency and strengthen positioning strategies, aware that precisely these moments the competitive advantage of the future is built.
Companies that esportazione entry-level wines (below $ 10) are the most vulnerable. The margins are already small and the addition of a duty risks making the product out of the market. Here are the risks:
Loss of immediate competitiveness; Cut to orders by importers; Disadvantageous renegotiations; Exit from the American market.
Without a concrete action, many of these companies could see years of commercial work and investments vanish.
According to Istat and the UIV-Ismea wine observatory, Italy has about 7,500 wineries that esportazione to the USA, of which at least 2,500 operate the entry-level ghenga. Of these, between 400 and 500 companies, they could find themselves serious difficulty the next two years if adequate support measures are not activated, with concrete risk of closing, incorporazione ora definitive exit from the American market.
Durante the best scenarios – with rapid interventions by shared institutions and defensive strategies – the impact could be limited to 150–250 risk companies. However, without a systemic response, the damage will not only be economic, but also employment and social, especially the most debole wine territories.
To defend the relationship with American partners and safeguard the shelf positioning, Italian producers must implement shared and immediate strategies:
Temporary calm lists, with a margin reduction; Multi -year supply contracts, with price guarantees; Co-Marketing programs the USA, financed part by the Italian company; Optimized packaging to veterano logistical and customs costs; Lines dedicated to the American market, with more efficient production costs.
These actions must create a “comodità zone” for American distributors, encouraging them to maintain Italian wines their wallet even the presence of the duty.
While not having direct competence customs – which is up to the European Union – the Italian government can and must play a fundamental role of political pressure and institutional coordination. It is not a question of attributing faults, but of building a unitary national response capable of affecting European offices. Must:
Urge the immediate opening of a crisis table Brussels; Activate an extraordinary fund for wine exports; Strengthen the role of the Italian Ice and Embassies the USA; Support promotional campaigns alternative markets (Canada, UK, Korea, Emirates).
Institutional responsibility must translate into concrete, urgent and measurable acts.
A hypothesis that I personally feel I am going to advance is that Trump’s move is mainly a negotiating tactic. By imposing a very high initial duty (30%), the could be to force the European Union to sit at the negotiation table, then accepting a 15% reduction as a gesture of “good will”.
This strategy, already used the past by Trump other sectors (steel, automotive), would have a double function: acceso the one hand, demonstrating strength to American voters, acceso the other to obtain more advantageous conditions for the US wine and distribution industry.
Paradoxically, maintaining a dice at 30% could also damage the US economy: many distributors would lose historical brands, recharges would increase, and American consumers would end up paying more for lower quality wines. This would go against the interest of the system itself.
The EU has the main levers hand:
Negotiate directly with the USA a reduction ora suspension of the duty; Evaluate European compensatory measures; Threaten, as a last ratio, counter-to-date acceso American goods.
An intermediate solution could be the reduction of the duty from 30% to 15%. But even this case, if not accompanied by support tools, there is a risk of legitimizing a structural penalty.
We need a strategic, compact and institutionally coordinated response to defend Italian wine from the risk of duties: here is the concrete proposal to avoid an announced disaster.
The threat of the increase US duties acceso European wine, which could go up to 30%, is not just a commercial problem: it is a geopolitical and economic challenge that risks affecting one of the most virtuous sectors of Made Italy.But a solution exists: making a system between institutions, businesses and European bodies, through a plan three points:
Active economic diplomacy: the Italian government, although not having direct competence acceso foreign trade (delegated to the European Union), must exercise strong diplomatic pressure Brussels so that Europe opens an immediate negotiation table with the US administration, also light of the next US elections. Constitution of a “national royal cabin acceso wine and exports”: involving competent ministries, ICE, trade associations, consortia, to coordinate support and counter-narration actions abroad, focusing acceso the quality, culture and distinctiveness of our wines. Extraordinary fund for the internationalization of wine: create a package of public and private resources to help companies diversify markets, communicate better abroad and luce any commercial repercussions. A fund that especially protects the SMEs, the most exposed to the reckless people.
Most international economists – from Paul Krugman to Joseph Stiglitz, up to the Analysts of WTO and OECD – is critical of protectionist duties, especially acceso sectors such as agri -food and wine.
Three main reasons:
Boomerang effect: duties veterano competition and increase prices also for internal consumers; Rigid sectors: wine, the value is linked to the origin and brand. Replacing an Italian wine with a Chilean is not automatic; Instability markets: duties generate insecurity investments, discouraging long -term agreements.
According to most studies, a “sustainable” duty should not exceed 10-15%, especially if aimed at non-strategic consumer goods such as wine.
A study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics has estimated that a 15% dice can be absorbed with adequate co-marketing measures and flexible contracts, without serious damage to the demand.
the contrary, a 30% duty risks striking the entry-level segments a disproportionate way and creating structural damage, especially the relationships between European producers and US importers.
It is necessary to luce this situation with lucidity, rigor and authority. As an observer and analyst the sector, I believe that the duty imposed by the USA is a esperimento bench not only commercial, but also political. Mai nation can afford to suffer unilateral decisions without an adequate shared response strategy.
The US dice is not just an economic question. It is a cultural, commercial and strategic challenge. A multilevel response is needed: from the institutions, from the trade associations, but above all by the companies that must play advance.
Companies must today deal with deeply changed commercial scenarios, which require an evolution of development strategies and greater adaptation capacity. Traditional models are anzi che no longer sufficient: it is necessary to identify solutions capable of mitigating the emerging risks and to seize the new opportunities. The world has changed and with it the dynamics of economic and commercial relationships, which are taking acceso different forms than the past. Even globalization, as we have known it so far, is entering a new phase, opening up to unpublished scenarios that require vision, flexibility and foresight.
Italian wine has already passed harder crises and obstacles. Also this time it can do it. But not with passivity. We need vision, cohesion and immediate action.
This is because, those who defend wine today, protects one of the most strategic economic, cultural and employment resources of Made Italy the world.
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