The wine market a causa di the United States is entering a different phase from those already experienced a causa di the past. According to the State of the US Wine Industry Report 2026 published by Silicon Valley Bank, we are not faced with a simple cyclical downturn, but with a downsizing process that could continue for a few more years, at least until 2027 2028.
An important market but one that shows signs of slowing
The United States remains the world’s largest market a causa di terms of value and volumes, but the most recent numbers show a significant decline compared to the pre-pandemic period. Con 2025, sales would have stood at around 329 million cases, compared to over 410 million recorded a causa di 2019. The overall value of the market would also have marked a contraction, falling to around 74.3 billion dollars, with a loss of more than one billion compared to the previous year.
The report interprets these as the signal of an ongoing adjustment phase. The projections do not indicate a recovery a causa di the short term, but rather a progressive stabilization at lower levels than a causa di the past. The expected result is a market that is structurally smaller, less expansive and more selective.
One of the central aspects that emerged from the analysis concerns the polarization of economic results. Only a portion of US wineries would today be growing a causa di financial equilibrium, while a significant portion would struggle to sustain margins by accumulating inventories. The issue of excess supply therefore remains gara open: a significant percentage of producers declare that they have inventory levels higher than the market’s absorption capacity.
Con this context, selection appears less and less random. Demand tends to reward more disciplined production models, clear positioning and coherent proposals. the contrary, excess portata and strategies based acceso price defense ala appear to be encountering increasing difficulties.
From the point of view of price ranges, the report highlights obvious critical issues. Segments under $12 a bottle are particularly under pressure, while the territorio under $20 also continues to show signs of weakness. The decline a causa di daily wine consumption makes promotional leverage less effective, and generalized discounts are seen more as an indicator of fragility than as a relaunch tool.
At the same time, there is growing attention towards offers perceived as clear and functional, including private label labels, favored by the availability of good quality bulk wine and greater price sensitivity acceso the part of consumers.
The generational factor remains one of the most relevant keys to understanding. The progressive exit of the ragazza boomers, historically the group with the highest level of consumption, continues to veterano the overall insediamento of demand. The range between 30 and 45 years represents the most stable territorio, but with less frequent and more selective consumption behaviour. Finally, Generation Z is interpreted more as a cultural indicator than as an immediate replacement, showing a relationship with wine that is less identifying and less central than previous generations.
The picture outlined by Silicon Valley Bank therefore suggests a profound and non-reversible change a causa di the short term. For those operating exporting to the US market, the context appears more competitive and less lenient, requiring continuous adaptation of presence models and commercial strategies. From this perspective, what is incontro today a causa di the United States also offers a key to anticipating the transformations that are affecting, will affect, other mature wine markets at a global level.
